great to wow! only at a sleep number store. right now save $600 on the #1 rated bed, plus 24-month financing. hurry, ends sunday! know better sleep with sleep number. guy: waiting for stimus, another slowdown in chinese inflation and to growing soon to ease volatility. act anna: commodities and fixed income trading t, as jamie dimon warns the fourth quarter is not off to a good start. guy: russian president vladimir putins all smiles. in 20.onill hit 4% we will hearrom r and how she will dothat in this program.
once again, when you talk about data coming out of china. guy: it seems like a familiar theme. but the aggregate is interesting here. the chinese inflation data and aggregate again just adding to this overall picture, the chinese economy is slowing. and as a result of which, maybe we'll see reaction. cpi story, speculation the central bank would do more to stimulate the economy. there is ongoing weakness -- the factory gate deflation story. we have a chart that shows just how long we have been in negative territory, that the 2012 is as far as you have to go to find a positive number. 43 -- those are the months that we have seen it in negative territory. guy: that has an impact around the world.
with weakcoincides growth, we have a chart here on bloomberg that shows the deflationary trend running around the weakening and global growth that we saw. guy: we have intelligence out overnight, a company is breaking estimates. we will bring yo that and have back and analysis in a couple of minutes. it looks like it missed on the revenue line. anna: let's get to asia for an update on how the markets reacting. yvonne man is standing by. morning, we see asia extending the losses all across the global markets. it is really marking the second day of losses we have seen in the region. you mentioned that read on inflation numbers in china, consumer prices and factory prices expanded for the record run inflation. that adds to concern in pacific
nation. everywhere except singapore, and -- may take a step down $130 billion in market cap wiped out. yesterday, the damage was at $230 billion. this is what is really happening across the board. let us take a look at the major indices real quick. somethe exception of maybe constituents, they are in the red. also take a look at australia, as well. we're seeing it down 1/10 of 1%. angapore managing to avoid recession, the central bank is easing policy for a second time this year. some economists still think this is a subtle move. but what we're seeing in the lookingght now, china like this -- coming back from the lunch break, down in shanghai and hong kong. down three quarters of a percent.
the are trying to weaken yen since the most since august 2013. let's get more on the chinese numbers and where they will take us. let us go to beijing, tom is there. we are watching the inflation numbers edging down in september. what is this data telling us about the state of the chinese economy, and where we have to go next in terms of policy? i think low inflation is telling us a story of our economic weakness. in august, we saw a little bit of a jump in cpi. but the story there was really a supply-side shock on agricultural prices. no one expected that the last. and indeed, the september numbers are showing the cpi edging back down to 1.6 year on year reading.
it points to very low price pressure, the demand remains very weak. putting that together with all of the negative numbers we've had recently, numbers on the pmi and on exports, the scene is really set for further easing into the yen. anna: what does this mean for the export deflation, that side of things? on the one hand, if you look at cpi there is speculation that there might be more action on the central bank. but as you were, on the deflation story, 43 months of negative points on that number. tom: it is been an extra ordinary. period from the factory sector. that has negative impacts on the economy. producers arei expecting the price to go down, theiris there incentive --
incentive. we saw the central bank talking about how low demand is weekend. one the reasons is that producer rice is falling. there are really two drivers for china, one domestic overcapacity. the other is international. we are in a period of low oil prices. if you look at history, it was in the fourth quarter of 2014 that oil prices really started the plummet. so actually, in the months ahead, we will start to see some of the impact of low international commodity prices dropping out of the numbers for china. i think we will still be in the place very territory by the end of the year, perhaps a little less severe. guy: tom, nice to see you. thank you for the analysis. anna: you don't have to look much further than the u.k. inflation data to see the effect. here are some of the other data's we are looking at, 9:30
we get u.k. jobless claims. at 10:00, we have euro industrial production. and later we will get the fed beige book. guy: bank of america and wells fargo report tomorrow. overnight, it was jp morgan kicking off the reporting season in the u.s. they warn that the pain is not over for trading operations come off to a tepid start in the fourth quarter. let's bring in prison for wheeler, good morning. fixed income and commodities, no real surprise that these are the areas that drag down jpmorgan. >> obviously, the beginning of september there was talk of 5% decline in trading revenues on fixed income. jpmorgan actuate saw the 3%. september was brutal. anna: not going to get any better from what they have said.
>> they are not talking up the fourth quarter. and of course the most telling thing, common across the banks is that the cfo came out and said that we would take out $2 billion in costs down to the cost base, another half $1 billion he is looking to take out. i think that is the right thing to do given the fact that the out look for revenue is so dole. anna: they are looking at the right spot. christopher: it is still a very strong bank. capital position is strong. they had a decent use, the fact that they have this global systematic buffer. the fed has effectively doubled up what they suggested. it to them up to 4.5% on top of 7% base capital. that came down to 4%, which is a lot of money -- about $30 billion in capital. they have been managing down their balance sheet. that is good for shareholders because it is filling up more capital for them to keep commodities. toit is not what to get down
3.5. guy: that is as good as it gets. institutions,her what can we learn from jpmorgan that we can now transpose to others. christopher: to some extent, goldman sachs and morgan stanley more dependent on fixed income. that will hurt. good/bad kennedy? can it be? of thisher: the irony is that jpmorgan goes offers and puts out results that are the best. we will look back and say this bank is performing well. i used that word in our meeting recently, because i think that is decent results in a truly awful quarter. some of what is happening of a prices of come down on the back of the noise about china. i think you have really high quality banks like wells fargo in jpmorgan, their statements.
if you want high yields, looking at quite cheaply, and where they were a few months ago, when they looked a little-- anna: what about the more traditional banking side? the advisory and all the things going on with the debt underwriting? christopher: equity capital markets were truly awful. down quarter on quarter for the industry. the ipo market close. they are making positive noises on the paul he call leslie. capital markets were off, but that area looked quite robust. everybody is critical down the mma market. we still pumping on. one of the things i keep talking about, private equities, they get pushed down. really an issue at the
moment, a lot of unused capital. they are struggling to find deals. it would be great to see that. that is not the noise you hear. you are looking at barclays, what you can do with your business, he knows that business. and he will learn a lot about that business. what is he going to do? christopher: he is starting 30 yards behind the competition in the race. he was clearly in the race, but it was a politically acceptable for him to take the job. he had a chance to shake the bank with all of the changes. barclays, the cfo a worked with him at j.p. morgan. they have the same sort of mindset about what needed to be done. but i think the key thing here is that one must member, he has been sitting on the management bank with a big investment business, sounds a lot like barclays. what he wants to be seen as is a man not just as an investment bank, but one who comes out of good management training. you can allocate capital of poorly.
just like deutsche bank, it is not a six-month job. anna: talking about the rest of the sector, there is argument that we have seen other players in the euro space, stepping away from the investment banking's eye. there is lot be gained from a tank that wants to go after that part of the business. this is a different story for the barclays we've seen in recent years. onistopher: joe mcfarland monday, it was a precursor to today. as someone who follows u.s. bank banks, i'm happy to see them taking market share -- as they continue to do. but for the europeans, i do scare some of john mcfarland's concern. this may be, it means cancellation between units. we're talking about credit , having a bigger entity may be to flinch, dare i say working with the british in terms of creating a stronger player. who knows?
inhink they asked us to come and think out-of-the-box a bit about what they need to do with the investment banks. wheeler, analyst at atlantic equity. guy: caroline hyde, over to you. caroline: what is the fate? today, the number one player .enol offer foraking an deutsche roman. of 1.9s to be in excess billion for the equity. that is about an 11% premium the company says about where the shares traded on average over the last three-month. debt with athe premium, you are getting a value of 14 billion euros. the way it is broken down, for every 11 deutsche shares, you novia.et seven four knovo
this is the number one try to take over the number two. they have in trying to buy out another player in germany, as welker it really has been a spree of battles for size in germany in the resident market. september,back in they made an offer for 1.6 billion. we will have to see that smaller deal goes through. to number two player trying compete against the acquirer. number one landlord in germany trying to buy out the number two. and it is 9.9 billion euros in equity value. guy: thank you very much, indeed. we will talk about the first debate for the democratic presidential get it is. sanders: it is the greed and reckless behavior
of wall street, where fraud is a business model. it helped to destroy this economy in the lives of millions of people. [applause] i thinkclinton: when about capitalism, i think about the small businesses that were started. because we have the opportunity and freedom for people to do that. and to make a good living for themselves and their family. and i do not think we should confuse, which is safe capitalism from itself. guy: hillary clinton at the democratic debate in vegas last night. up next, the woman with the blessing from putin. how to get inflation down from 60% to 4%. big odds? maybe. you will find out after the break. ♪
back.welcome there are stories me to know. weaker prices in september for china, leaving the idea for monetary policy to be eased even further. that is down from 2% in august. the august number was a bit of an anomaly. prices fell for the 43rd straight month. has: singapore's bank narrowly avoided a recession. the monetary authorities say they were reduce slightly the inflation and a currency. grew in september. economists had suspected a contraction. guy: the largest u.s. bank said revenue fell, drew to a slump in failing. mortgage banking result shares in jpmorgan fell in extended
trading. anna: the london metal exchange week. industry key players are gathering in london to talk about metals. ahead of the annual conference, we caught up with the chairman of the world's biggest copper producer. hea bloomberg exclusive, told us commodity prices have become disconnected from the fundamentals. do a very simple analysis of the price, it is very obvious that copper prices -- but also a whole variety of commodities -- they have become volatile. they have acquired a life of their own, one would say. away from the fundamentals. and that is just the reality of markets today. guy: it has been a year of oversupply and weak demand, much of the blaming put on china. speaking to bloomberg in the same interview, oscar said he
was not too concerned about the situation. oscar: we are still in good shape and the chinese market. if you look in the overall situation, i think we have to be very sincere and say there are a lot of people talking about china. but i don't think there is a broad understanding of the nature of the adjustments. we all know there is an adjustment. everybody has his own theory. this willieve that take a couple of years, will take some cleaning of the balance sheets. it is a process. but in the end, the fundamentals for demand for copper are still there in the long-term. and so we believe that we will still be in business in china for a long time. copper, confusion -- the main story that is emanating both from that interview and from lme week.
lazenburg really confused about china. why is he confused? one possibility is something we will talk about. ken kaufman is good at making the good speech at bloomberg's metal conference in london today. he joins us now. ken, your speech is called the emperor may have no clothes. explain. ken: one of the things we know the chinese have been doing over the entire course of the past 10 years is people, small to mid users, can to thousands of them, have been borrowing outside of china at 2%. to finance the inventory, since you cannot freely bring money in and out of china, leaving the copper sitting there. then going to the local bank with those dollars, changing it into youan.
ft said 70% of copper was used for this. we are met with many producers who say i do not run my equipment. all i'm doing is bringing it in, financing it, it is a free way to make a lot of money. i met one guy who said he had 2000 tons of pipe capacity, he was using 5%. he cared about financing is copper. anna: if you have all of its copper just sitting around there doing nothing, not being used to build anything, just being used in this financing activity. how do you get a sense of how big this trade could be? ken: you have no idea. that is why ivan is so confused. if the number is right, that is 25 million metric tons -- about a year and a half of global supply. in the big question for every analyst right now is if chinese demand was not real, part of the demand was fake, it was just being used to pile up
warehouses, instead of china being half a world copper demand, maybe there only 40%. and so that number as it comes down, it means that the demand looks good. it could be good, but in terms of what they really need to bring into the country, it can be far less. that is why the copper price is falling. gu speculatey: on how much it could fall if the trend continues. how long will it take to unwind? ken: nickel has been the canary in the coal mine. the world's largest provider is indonesia. it came out two years ago and said they will not do anything less you build a smelter. last year, everyone said nickel. we love nickel. the price is down 60%. why? it has been crushing the price. if this happens in other areas to make a beep be devastating. so what you have to look at his ners are cutting to
keep the price i. right now, there is only one. and that is glencore. they know china better than everybody, or the other miners arson do not worry. anna: it might not be legitimate. but i suppose it only impacts the price, if it starts to unwind. what clues to you have to the guys doing this will just keep on doing this? are the same dynamics in place, the still make sense for the slightly less legitimate trade to take place? ken: a could be a 2016 event. what you're looking at, if the chinese are starting to do things that make a turnaround. they want to stoke the economy and lower interest rate, much like the u.s. and they have been lowering. depreciatingan. if they start to lose money,
stop doing the trade. and the banks will start selling the material back to the marketplace. and that is the unwind that does not happen, we hope. guy: we talk about copper, so the other metals. are we talking about oil? ken: anything they can trade financing on -- chemicals, gold, anything they could use is for. ed aboutdely talk a metals, the ever has no close. you mentioned the nickel market, this is been happening. this is gaining currency, this argument that people trying to increasingly get their heads around the scale of this. ken: i think some of the smarter players who of the smarter players who have been around, this happened in the early 90's h smaller scale. the effect was brutal. it could be happening again. ken, thank you for joining us. saysnext our next guest
guy: 6:30 in london. good morning. here are the stories you need to know. anna: consumer prices in china came in weaker for september, leaving room to ease monetary policy even further. 2% inse by 1.6%, down august. factory gate prices fell for the 43rd straight month. guy: singapore's central bank has ease policy, after they narrowly avoided a recession last quarter. the monetary authority of singapore said they will reduce the depreciation in the currency. gdp rose 1/10 of 1% in the three-months through september.
economists had expected a contraction. as with.organ missed driven by a slump in trading. shares fell in extended trading. guy: let us turn to russia. back to russia, ryan chilcote is back there. choked by sanctions, let us see how big business is faring. ryan is joined by one of the countries biggest the telik medications company. actually russia's largest mobile company. thank you very much for joining us. i want to start by asking you where things are today for business in terms of funding? you you and i spoke last, were talking about a crisis of liquidity. are we still there? >> last, we talked in december.
i think that was the worst year. i don't think we see the liquidity strength in the market. tight toit will be start the investment cycle. and i think that we will see, and that is what we showed ratesday on the forum, going slightly down further. it then we will probably see for a good investment cycle in russia. ryan: rates could go as low as 4% by 2017, if inflation hits a target of 4% buy them. what do you make of that? ey: that would be very good conditions. if we go down to 7%, that is the lowest we saw in the market. the second after brazil, is that a problem for mtw?
s? alexey: i think we already saw the quality with the fall of oil prices. so we have a very high correlation between oil prices. it seems to be some stabilization in the price, which we have seen over the last months. we also see the rusussian rubel is approaching some stability. ryan: you have about 20 million customers in the ukraine. a pretty sizable business. given the tensions between the ukraine, the bilateral sanctions that they have introduced -- not yours -- is it worth holding out? there is talk you will select a vodafone. alexey: we are looking at different options on how to expand and develop in this area, in this job.
we are doing business, and we try not to think about the politics. in the auctione earlier this year. 3g.on licenses on and we are doing expansions and investments in this market to build up the best 3g network and to drive consumption. ryan: any chats with vodafone? alexey: we are exploring different options. did: one of the things you in this country, you cut prices on smartphones by as much as 30% earlier this year. and i guess on the flip side, as result of that, people are coming in buying the cheap smartphones and buying your cheap contracts. is in a win-win?
alexey: i think we are going through change in distribution in the market. we are trying to ween the market throughhigher customer our sales channels. i think that is one of the ways how we see the distributional element, at least this year. mts, running of the financial side of russia's largest mobile operator. saying that they are not confirming their up to sale, that they will sell the ukraine business to vodafone. and saying that rates still remain too high and russia. and we will have my interview throughout the morning, where we discussed that very subject. back to you. anna: thank you very much. more from moscow as we go to the morning. guy: we get an update on u.k. labor later this morning. it will be the final snapshot of employment and pay, before the
inflation reports. we are by chief european armstrong.patrick good morning to you. let me start with you. date out later on today, the weight story, the unemployment story seems to be much of the thinking right now. how will this factor into the thinking, and how this compare contrast from the message on the inflation side? patrick: i think the report is pivotal, we will learn whether the weakness in employment gains over the last quarter's will be sustained or temporary? we had a very lasting drop. and if that gives us confidence, it will not be a lasting feature in the u.k. recovery. we are looking for quite a big bounce back in employment and we are looking for possibly a small
fall in unemployment rate. that you provide some support, so if they're looking to -- anna: i know you think there are building.ures i see economist saying there are no wage or inflation pressures. why is there this sort of disagreement about the extent of wage pressures? >> i think it is clear that wage growth is picking up. will it continue, that is a risk/ ?whether they respond to wage growth, where the productivity picks up, it picks up in line with wage growth, there is no real reason to lift rates. our feeling is that productivity will not continue to pick up. and that wage growth will anna: the interpretation of how
productivity hates. behaves. uy: because at the moment, it does seem the low inflation number is acting as a break on the thinking. jaime: we saw inflation on the spike yesterday, closing where it may not be lasting. more importantly, we are seeing tuition fees dropping out -- .2% off the inflation rate. and thereafter, we should see oil prices fall out. inflation to pick up quickly towards the end of the year. and then going into the next year. it all depends on whether employment gains and wage growth are the same in the first quarter next year. that happens, i think you're looking at a major rate increase. if we see a bit of a turnaround or slow down, it will be much later on. anna: patrick, this is your macro backdrop.
we are talking here about the u.k. comedy. you see a rate rise in the u.k. in may or later next year? patrick: i think you will see the u.k. in q2. and maybe a difficult time with issues.ntial grexit but i think in both economies, you can start to expect inflationary pressures building. anna: they're sort of happy to run the economy a bit hot, aren't they? janet yellen even set to percent was not the target. reply. it is a dovish for what is the base case this factoring into asset prices? look at -- do we continue with the incremental creep up? quite a lot of volatility in the
meantime. patrick: we think you will move slowly, not much liquidity out there. there is not would be many reasons to sell, i think. you will not see any real catalyst that this is something to cause a panic that we had in august or in the spring. you are going to see it go higher because of low liquidity. anna: you don't think the markets will get all caught up, once again in december? patrick: there is no press conference in october. you're looking at december. the higher interest rates that you saw, they want to raise them clearly, she is also shown she is responsive to market. guy: let me get both your takes. jaime, why is the market pricing them so far out? given the backdrop you have just described? is justthink it headline inflation. and if it picks up, they will
start to realize that maybe we have this wrong. the bank of england and economists like myself are focusing on the late models, wages and inflation a year and a half now. and as soon as inflation starts to pick up, and it is rising, it makes it easier for the banks to explain and justify why will be lifting rates? patrick: the only missing ingredient in the u.s. and u.k. is that inflation is not there. every thing else, jobs are being created. people are getting paid a little bit more. guy: we had a guest on earlier, ken, his case is that chinese amanda for commodities is not real. even at these prices, you're going to see a lot of this being dumped back onto the market which will force commodity prices even lower from where we are now. that would take the edge off this argument, wouldn't it? patrick: it is transitory.
it will have a one-year affect. the constant transitory effect from weaker commodity prices, i think there -- i am not sure about how much of an impact hoarding in china, how much that will play out? but there's a spike across them. anna: patrick made the point they're abouir about the exit. cannot moveengland now, too many uncertainties other. do we start to end up in that sort of situation around brit exit? probability changes much, it will have an effect. it is a fact. to the extent that that -- anna: it could be there in the data. not just the sentiment. jaime murray joining us. patrick stays with us.
anna: here are the stories you need to know. in chinaumer prices came in weaker than expected, leaving room to ease monetary policy even further. in rose by 1.6%, down 2% august. it is an anomaly. at the same time, factory gate prices fell for the 43rd straight month. anna: meanwhile, singapore's central bank has ease monetary policy. that is cut the country narrowly avoided a recession in the last quarter. the monetary authorities say it
will reduce slightly depreciation and currency. 1/10 of 1%.ualized economists had expected a contraction. u.s. bankargest fell overnight. jpmorgan fell in extended trading. anna: democrats faced off last night in las vegas. front runner henry clinton in vermont senator bernie sanders stole the show. senator bernie sanders: the greed and recklessness and illegal behavior of wall street, or fraud is a business model. it helps to destroy this economy and the lives of millions of people. hillary clinton: when i think about capitalism, i think about all the small businesses that were started because we have the
opportunity and the freedom in our country for the people to build that make a good living for themselves and their families. and i do not think we should confuse what we have to do every so often in america, which is the save capitalism from itself. guy: for more, let's bring in hans nichols. he is in london, and he is a former white house correspondent. he is now our international correspondent. a man of many hats. good morning, nice to see you. who won? guy: at this stage, you don't look for winners/ you look. losers. you want to make sure no one is dripping blood. -- if you have to put winner, maybe hillary. expectations were quite high. the extent to which it very went on offense against bernie sanders. this is bernie sanders playing defense for hillary. he is looking for an alive, part
of his golfing that we should be talking about issues. thisenator bernie sanders: the american people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails. enough of the e-mails. let's talk about the real situation facing america. hans: hillary clinton did not return the favor. she went back and went for the jugular. she had a chance to take on bernie sanders and criticize them for his gun vote. here is what she said. anderson: is bernie sanders tough on guns? no, not at all. fact weto look at the lose money people a day to gun violence. long and iton too is time the entire country stood up to the ra. nra. issues wherene he is to the right of hillary, she managed to make that one the main headline moments of the
day. wimmer did her debate prep, and we do know some of them, they deserve raises. they had a good week. one thing to look out the moment look at the financial disclosure reports, we will be able to see who is getting paid. and how much. one thing with the fundraising -- race $75,000. look at the burn rates. how much are they spending? pollsters are not cheap. where is henry spending? do we see a more aggressive bernie sanders? and we see more shots taken a hillary? anna: even before we got to this point, we saw some of the commenting. about some of the talking the industry. hans: on this program, we never say the markets are wrong. but there is a chance that hillary clinton will have to deal with a hostile republican
congress. to get legislation passed, she can do things on a regulatory level. but to get legislation signed into law, she needs partners on capitol hill. it is remarkable how sensitive markets are/ . biotech company sold off on a trade. the logistics are very difficult to a split house. hans: a new rule, markets are never wrong. but guess are always right. guy: where was donald trump? did he get mentioned? the play a part? hans: he is playing his own separate part. he is coming back to host saturday saturday night live. this is trump coming back, trumping trump. he is the leading and a lot of holes. ben carson is challenging him.
does take a brought that back, republicans rallied behind the candidate. they had a mock debate that did not really matter. this is the exact opposite. republicans are in complete chaos. he saw a hint of this, democrats lining behind the establishment in it. who, some argue, it is her turn. that is an old republic in line. dole, even 1988, it is always the incumbent republican that gets it. this field is totally wide open. and that is why it is exciting. i'm staying in berlin. wear that had very well. guy: the russian central bank governor says she sees further rate cuts as the story on prices slow. she spoke to bloomberg's ryan chilcote in moscow. >> you have to think about the
risk of someone pumping cheap money into the economy with artificially low rates that are far from expectations. that will simply lead to financial bubbles, more inflation, capital outflows, and all the negative consequences. ryan: when you get to the 4% inflation target, is that around what you think russia should have for rates? >> it is difficult to talk about the difference between rates and inflation. it will be somewhere close to that. but it will be defending on the economy. at ouret us take a look top stories on the bloomberg website. tim joins us now. three trends, redefining the energy market. to take note of, patrick armstrong still here. good morning to you, tim. take us through some of the highlights of the story about
one of them the to my eye, cheap fossil fuels here to stay. tim: the most interesting thing is to take a step back and look at the world of energy. now we are talking about the age of plenty, when literally there is so much of the stuff we do not know what to do it. the cost of fossil fuels is declining, falling, staying low. the cost of renewables is plunging. what thelook at world's building, it is building wind farms and not coal stations. chart that kind of really caught my eye in terms of what is going on, drilling costs coming down really quite sharply. look at what is happening with technology, how it is impacting. it is not going to go away, because these guys are smart. tim: it is amazing. as the cost of oil has plunged
and gas has plunged, they become more efficient. in the age of $100 oil, they keep drilling. and as the oil costs climbed, they just adjusted to that. they found deficiencies. in the next chart in the story shows how costs decline, the wells become more efficient. each produces a lot more oil and gas. you: patrick, are interested exposures to renewables? one of the points that tim is referring to, you want to dominate ellipticity but 2014. problems over are you looking to invest in that? patrick: not now. anna: but you are not interested? low,ck: with oil prices so that is when you want to start looking at it from an equity investment. i think the early days are there.
guyl: you have to figure out how to run groups more efficiently, you look at smart grid technology. that is what he did a, a lot of renewables all over the place. ellipticity like this, we are not going to have a base level that is going to be consistent. is that where we should be looking? as we look to the future, building smarter grants. that is where the investment needs to go. tim: the big challenge is the battery. elon musk thinks that we would just produce lots of them and drive the cost down that way. everybody else thinks it is not the lithium ion technology, but the next generation that will really change the world. and a great battery is going to change the world. rather than: production. figuring out where the power needs to be. tim: that is a big question, what battery will emerge? exxon would love to figure out. they would want to change the
guy: waiting for stimulus. another slowdown in china and speculation that the pboc will act soon. anna: commodities and fixed income trading hit the numbers. fourth quarter is not off to a good start. guy: and god bless the central bank. smiles asutin is all the central bank governors says inflation will improve by 2017. that is a big ask. we will hear from her in this program. anna: it is 7:00 here in london.
we are getting a pretty negative handover from the asian session, a lot of data coming out of china, this time on the prices. guy: i think it is also what is happening in the states overnight. jpmorgan came out with a miss. intel came out as well, and future expectations are not quite great. run is through what we are going to happen in terms of the european equity open. we are one hour away, and as anna said, it is not looking good. we are down by 7/10 of 1%, london down by a tenths of 1%, paris by 7/10 of 1%, frankfurt in a similar vein. will get goings a little bit later, according to the terminal, negative across the pace. anna: let's check in on asia. yvonne is standing by. yvonne, an interesting asian
session. yvonne: yeah, looks like we are seeing a global rally falter, the second day of losses in the asian-pacific region. you mentioned that softer read on the china inflation numbers, feeding concerns of global growth. the shanghai composite is down 3/10 of 1%, hang seng down 2/ of 1%. the only exceptions are thailand, and singapore was one of the bright spots earlier but now it is slack. they managed to avoid a recession, but even so, they did ease policy for the second time this year. some economists are saying this move was not good enough. i want to mention that the nikkei+++
seen in a couple weeks now. a lot of this concern comes from the commodities rally. the equity rally has been a dead cat. the yen gaining for a third day as investors look for havens. let's talk about gold. australia was down 1/10 of 1%, and we have seen that the gold miners are doing well. this is that they ended in australia, all in the green. resources are up as well. let's talk about the china industrial picture. producer prices in china has been falling for 43 straight months in deflation rate. thiser way to look at it, is just a reflection of declining industrial profits. those figures will have to come out next week, and we are expecting lackluster growth. the shares into hong kong, all in the red this morning. a company that makes
construction, zoomlion, similar to caterpillar, it's all losses for the third quarter of up to ¥200 million, the lion. share of its business in china anna: 43 months we have seen that chinese factory price in negative territory, exporting deflation around the world and the u.k. inflation story licked it. guy: we will talk to an expert on commodities. ken will be joining us later. the impact on the carry trade in china as well can have a fairly negative impact on the commodity straight. we will put the docts together later. that is the market out of asia -- what about europe? yesterday was u.k. inflation and today it is u.k. jobless claims. industrial production, later we
get the fed as well. anna: it is a big day for banks, a weak day. today we get bank of america and wells fargo reporting. and of course we had jpmorgan out last night with their numbers, missing estimates and trading weaker after-hours. patrick, weigh-in on the banking story. we talked about it with christopher, about this story behind european banks versus american banks. we are just adding to get this reporting season underway. you like the european banks, don't you? patrick: it is an evaluation call. are trading below tangible value and we think the ecb will be supportive of putting policies in place that encourage lending from banks, measures that help to stimulate the economy. eventually we will get a steepening of the yield curve,
and probably european rates will move up. it is not on a short-term outlook, which jpmorgan is talking about it being weak. 1% is thear north of banking sector, then? patrick: it varies quite a bit depending on if the banks are at the epicenter of anxiety. 1.3. guy: but you will get some outperformance. patrick: i would rather have that. the banks still have higher -- we think they will be a big part of q4. anna: as we see an extension of quantitative easing, you know that will depress rates in europe. patrick: we think they do. and we saw 10 year yields rise by 60 basis points, so it is clearly designed to be a
reflation or policy, which will eventually lead to some steepening. anna: it might work on the euro? i know you are short the euro against the dollar. patrick: yes. we think they probably -- guy: if i am a non-eurozone investor, how much am i going to lose on the currency, and how much of my going to gain -- he u.k. or u.s. investor -- how does this work? patrick: i think you have got about 5% to 10% against the dollar that you may lose. i got to think about that -- that is a big chunk of change. significant, but 2015 has been a significant year. if you are looking in dollar terms, it is not too dissimilar. anna: you are quite a dollar bull, then?
we haven't talking about rates going up for so long -- we see it coming -- maybe that dollar patrick: since we got to make, the fed hike was always three months away. today we are probably looking at three to four months away. anna: so it never goes away. patrick: that is why you have seen the euro rally against the dollar, because it had been pushed further. the policy will drive the next move in the currency. is there ans -- outperformance trade as well with companies that deal in goods priced in dollars but cost base in europe? are there others that take advantage of this process question mark patrick? patrick: we moved into the industrial airbox and things like that, dollar revenues in
euro as part of our thinking, as well as constructive on the global economy. retail sectorthe as well, depending on how they are structured. patrick: retail and industrial are the two sectors where you get good foreign revenue. guy: where is the market most underweight, but you think that underweight will close? we saw a little bit and commodities of last month into this month. are there other -- patrick: the biggest area in the risk of a snap is probably short of the commodities sector, mining sector. i am not a view to be buying that. i think we have a supply glut that will play out over the next year. that seems to be the consensus. anna: you are not with the guys who say we have seen the worst? patrick: not yet. i think what will changes we
comes when china that was more monetary stimulus that will be announced. they have a doing it since 2014 and they are probably behind the curve where. armstrong, he stays with us a little longer. guy: health care. caroline hyde. caroline: health care and a little bit of booze. the first, i want to dig into one particular deal, a combination of health care companies. these are, after we saw talks start, coming to an agreement to merge, and will create a leading private health care group. number three in south africa, number one in switzerland, number one in the uae. it will also have a minority
stake inspire health care. this company will have 73 hospitals and 45 clinics, a combination of alnor and mediclinic. they are selling their shares at eight pounds per piece. we will likely see a share lifting here in the united kingdom, some good news for the london stock exchange. . now let's do the booze. anna: exactly. there are more concerning issues to do with wine, never mind devi the vices. wine is no longer court to diageo, and they are selling off. this is for the us-based chateau and estate wines.
million is the number you need to know -- the proceeds are 320 million pounds going to diageo to repay borrowing. keep an eye on those shares. anna: thank you very much. guy: bit early for pictures of guinness and scotch. [laughter] the fate of jpmorgan as it reports earnings that miss analyst estimates. ♪
a gauge and factory prices fell for the 43rd straight month. guy: singapore's central bank after they narrowly avoided a technical recession. the say they will reduce rate of appreciation in this country. economists had expected such action. anna: jpmorgan missed estimates, falling 6.4% driven by slumping trading. shares of jpmorgan fell in extended trading. guy: let's get further into the jpm numbers. caroline hyde has the details. caroline: the biggest u.s. bank is kicking off earnings season with a bit of doom and gloom. if you strip away all the numbers you can see revenue is not doing well, down 6.4%. we know that the federal reserve keeps rates at rock-bottom -- that is hurting your net
interest margin. interestingly, jpmorgan managed to improve slightly by rebalancing some of those assets. that underlying it, revenue is across every single unit, following whether it is corporate or investment banking, consumer and community asset management. all four units are seeing sluggishness. more worrying is what's to come. thatfo is pointing out october is pretty quiet. she seems to be hinting that the estimates are appearing to be high. they are bracing themselves and the rest of the industry, jpmorgan trying to tame some analyst exuberance. let's dig into the winning and losing parts of the business. trading was hit and in particular, it was the fixed income unit doing the poorest. 22% down if you add in the businesses they sold.
strip bets on the sales of businesses and still fixed income trading fell 11%. mortgage was down, slumping by almost one half. few over lining -- equity trading did well. advisory --anking jpmorgan is doing well out of that. and fixed income underwriting business did not fair to badly either. but not nearly enough to offset the laggards and to offset the pain they have seen in terms of trading being on the downside. , inher to make money particular in credit and commodities. let's have a look at the bad omens that we see -- this is something that credit sites are the fed out --
rate is reportedly hurting not just jpmorgan but the banking sector. this will be widespread -- think of the banks we have coming today. we getw, goldman sachs, a really clear picture of what is -- --s is an industry that they biggest earning influence on the s&p 500. they are bracing themselves for shorts. notably, if you are looking at the ratio, that is the right to sell a stock versus -- back to you. guy: thank you very much indeed. back with that in 40
minutes time. a controversial subject in the financial -- that they operate here in europe. our guest operates one of the biggest out there. seth aaron joins us subject in the financial now and patrick armstrong is still with us. good morning to you. let's take your look on the rules that are coming into place. how do they affect your world? seth: this is one large part of it -- to talk about dark pools. ony were originally intent enabling large institutions to trade among themselves, for wholesale marketplace where they can trade in large size. the predatory trading is eating into this business.
this follows a number of other regulatory regimes like canada and australia. if you are not doing anything that is above and beyond what you can find on the exchanges, if you are not getting better price improvement, then you should move your volumes back to exchanges. net is a network of the largest institutions in the world, and our average execution sizes about 200 times. we are very couple of the marketplace and institutions, if you want to trade one million pounds of something, you need different tools. that is what liquid net provides. very well in terms of where the focus is. anna: so because your traits are so big -- seth: we are way above the waiver. we have been rated best
execution all around the world because we do what we do extremely well. guy: how much trade will get light up. seth: if australia and canada are any measure, which i think they will be, half the volume within weeks is going into the market. when the regulators took a look at what actually is going on in these dark pools, generally owned by large investment banks, the average execution sizes are smaller than what is on the exchanges. it is not an institutional marketplace at all. -- yourtrick, you don't dealings are not the sizes this operates on -- do they impact the market you are trading in? patrick: not really. i think the media jumps onto it a lot and create an issue that is an early there.
generally what you find is liquidity -- seth: it is both, right? if they have a million pounds of something they don't want to display it on thie exchange because everyone knows what they are about to do. institutions manage money on behalf of all the people who put their money into the mutual fund. you have to protect their orders as well. now we are going into the fixed income world to provide a world for fixed income trading because that is the biggest problem yet to occur. guy: how much of the trades we see how muchous to liquidity gets infected because all you hearing is that this remains a key concern. some of the high-frequency guys -- we are seeing less and less liquidity. how big a concern is this? what are the unintended
consequences of what we are seeing coming through? patrick: the regulators are very concerned about pressing mechanism, which is the exchange is supposed to be. too much of this execution -- the pricing mechanism might be affected. you are going to execute small size, put it back on the public utility, which is absolutely necessary. investors,titutional if you insert institutional demand against the exchanges, you create unnecessary movement. volatility. if you have a wholesale marketplace working alongside ae pricing mechanism, large-size executing along with a small size on the exchanges, then you reduce overall volatility and provide better pricing for the institutions. ultimately it creates better savings. anna: you refer to the fixed income market and the crisis
that has not happened yet. how do you see that coming to re? fo do you think some of these companies are not going to be able to meet their debt repayments? where do we look for the -- seth: the problem is in today's day and age, level of technology, the only way you can trade a corporate bond is there human beings. the only way that was possible because banks have enough capital to facilitate those traits. because of all the regulations, the banks no longer have that level of capital. we used to allocate $250 million of his marketplace. today it is $15 billion. at the same time, it has doubled over the last 10 years. the way theyoblem normally trade is no longer available to them, so today you
have to insert technology to max the buyer and seller. is maximizing fixed income liquidity in the united states and europe so that these institutions can find each other. it is the role of an exchange -- we are not an exchange but we are a centralization of all this massive liquidity so that we can facilitate these large trades between institutions without the human need. guy: where does this ultimately all go? 10 years down the road, what is the financial market look like? if wall street worked on the margins of supermarkets who would have a lot more technology for -- more technology. we will see the market go very electronic, very automated. there are good parts and bad parts that off some of the has to go more technology. anna: good to see you.
i just had a horrible nightmare. my company's entire network went down, and i was home in bed, unaware. but that would never happen. comcast business monitors my company's network 24 hours a day and calls and e-mails me if something, like this scary storm, takes it offline. so i can rest easy. what. you don't have a desk bed? don't be left in the dark. get proactive alerts 24/7. comcast business. built for business. tand that's what we're doings to chat xfinity.rself, we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.
it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. anna: welcome back. 7:30 in london. consumer prices in china came in weaker than expected leaving the boc room to ease monetary policy further. number, a bit of an anomaly. in a gauge of factory prices, it fell to the 43rd straight month. anna: central bankers ease monetary policy for the second time after the country narrowly avoided a technical recession. the monetary authority of singapore says it will reduce slightly. gdp rose an annualized 1/10 of 1% through september.
economists had expected a contraction. guy: the largest u.s. bank had revenue falling due to a slump in trading, fixed incomes, and commodities. shares of jpm fell in extended trading. anna: let's check in on the asian markets. a pretty negative handover of the baton from asia into europe. man.s get to yvonne yvonne: looks like we will end the day here in asia on a second day of losses. all morning, this softer inflation data out of china -- consumer inflation moderated, arise in 1.6%. it was the factory gate deflation members that really caused quite a stir. china,that record run in 43 straight months falling 93% in the month of september.
we are seeing these lingering deflation risks out of china, which is sparking concern. it does offer the pboc more room for easing. we have already seen the latest move, an unconventional one, which uses loans as collateral so they can get cheaper credit. most economists are expecting that more measures are to come by the end of this year. --t is worth noting today down by half a percent in the shanghai composite, the nikkei to 25 close to 2% down, the worst in a couple weeks. australia's stocks also saw downward pressure. noting is that china lowered its reference for the yen by the most since the devaluation. this was coming out just minutes soer that inflation data,
there is some signal that they may have known these inflation numbers will be a lot less than what the economists were forecasting. apparently it was going to end on gold -- looking pretty good now that we have seen concern in china, but it did rise to the highest we have seen since july. they could be adding to the case to the fed to hold off interest rate this year. back to you. anna: people on, thank you -- he'yvonne, thank you. wholesale prices out of india, climbing by 4.5%. the estimate was for a decline of 4.42%. it is not as weak as it was. the month before was nearly 5% weaker. guy: you will power, and letting prices fell by's 20.71%. as we see, commodity prices coming down. that is one of the effects of
the big energy importer. anna: less than half an hour away from the start of european equity trade. let's take a look at how we are positioned for the european open. it will be weaker, down 7/10 of 1%. euro stocks down. germany will fall more than most. negative pricing as we work our way to the european equity cash open. anna: oil is falling again, down 6% this week. what does that mean for the world's largest energy exporter, and what could be more worrisome than its decline in the sanctions were russia a smart ryan chilcote is in russia. he has been finding out. ryan: good morning. the last time i saw the governor of russia's central bank, she told me that she checked the oil price several times a day. easy to understand when you
think that the ruble follows the oil price in lockstep. what about this idea that goldman sachs -- that oil prices could be around for a long time? i asked her what she thinks about this oil slumped lasting as long as 15 years. >> possible. but considering that scenario, and the main thing for us now is to learn how to live with oil prices that are relatively below. there is a model for economic low oil prices. >> is that your worst nightmare? >> no. it is a reality we are already mentally prepared for. our financial sector is ready for it. now the economy is adjusting. what could be scarier than $50 oil for russia? is the worries me most
pace of reforms that we need to stimulate investment from the private sector. we need a whole set of reforms tonight russia more attractive for private investment. we don't talk about investment in russia very often, but i put together a nice graph to give you a sense of how bad the situation is. we have a graph that shows you investment in russia over the last 20 months. notice that it has full and year on here every month for the last 20. russians either don't have money to put into production, or if they do they just don't feel comfortable enough of the situation to do that. that is one of the big problems when you talk about where growth will come from. look to investment -- it will come from the consumer. russian consumers were getting richer and the 2000 but that has played itself out. where she is is hoping it will come from.
the last 20 months she has not seen many positive signs. guy: so why is she optimistic? what is she feel she can get inflation down? why should she be feeling good about what she is doing right now? speaking, sheally is a bit more pessimistic than most in terms of when the turnaround is going to come. she doesn't think the economic turnaround will come until 2017. what she is optimistic about his two things -- inflation and her ability to get it down below 16%, to her target of 4%, can't rates. rates in this country are at 11%. it was as high as 70%. -- as 17%. she wants to get it down to sayse digit, but she because inflation is where it is , she is going to have to wait to do that. but inflation will fall, she says, because most of it was a one-off movement from the beginning of the year, plus
consumers are not driving prices up. it is weak because russian consumers don't have more money to pay in the shops, and shopkeepers can't raise prices. guy: great work. ryan chilcote in moscow. anna: 7:38. copper is down 50% over the last four years. let's get some analysis from bloomberg intelligence's global head of mining. he will be making a speech later today at the metals conference around where he thinks the stories goes next. allen higgins is also joining us for the rest of the program. ken, let's start with you. we were talking about this -- explain what we have to do with the commodity prices. the last four years has been about china slowing down. for example, there to mystics
steel demand is down 19 of the past 21 months and it has been getting worse. over the last two months it has been down 9%, copper demand is down 2%. what we are talking about is something that could happen in 2016 that ties in with a lot of the stories we are talking about today. china wants to make the yuan more international and they also want to soak their economy. that may do is make that you want to appreciate -- make the yuan to appreciate. the only way you can take advantage of low external interest rate is to use what we call the carry trade, carrying goods inside of china, using it for financing purposes. that has been used for a decade or more. we willbegins to stop find that what is true chinese demand, and that could cause a real problem. guy: how much copper do you think has been used part and
parcel of this carry trade? how much is kicking around from surface to supply? ken: the international bank of $1.2ements says one poin trillion is used in coppe carry trade. somethinghis could be that weighs even further on commodity prices. ken: in two ways. it means chinese demand isn't as high as we thought it was, and that there is a big fall to of copper that could come back into the marketplace. this is why glass says he doesn't understand china. ken: exactly. this is 50,000 people doing this or 200,000. anna: well let's turn to allen to explain. give us your take on china.
do you recognize this situation that can is describing -- that ken is describing? allen: a tough story, hard to get commodities right. if glencore can't get it right -- you hear stories about copper from well-informed executives saying that we see underlying demand, but it is slightly worrying -- i don't know. what we do know about china, and as evidenced by today's numbers and the trade numbers yesterday, and importantly having a gold week. everything we want to happen in china seems to be happening. dropping, exports dropping, consumption really picking up, car sales not picking up. that is what we wanted, but be
a gauge of factory prices fell for the 43rd straight month. meanwhile, indonesia's central bank is easing policy as they narrowly avoided technical recession. the authority says it will reduce prices slightly to pay for depreciation is currency. the economists had expected a contraction. anna: jpmorgan missed estimates. revenue fell 6.4%, driven by a drop in trading and mortgage results. shares fell in extended trading. guy: caroline is rejoining us. caroline: if you are looking at chips and chip equipment it will be a big fourth asml. europe's a guest chip equipment maker could fall anywhere up to 10 percent. we see the shares on a downward trajectory, by 25% since their peak reached back in may.
thateason is fourth-quarter estimates are missing analyst estimates, saying that customers that were cautious -- one of their customers as intel -- saying out that they are seeing slower corporate spending. the bottle offor the german landlords, m&a a plenty in germany. the know via is offering deutsche bone in -- rising in premarket trading over in germany. diageo is selling its wine assets, getting out of wine, expecting to raise 320 million in sales. and keep an eye on dominoes -- they could rise as much as 5%. guy: thank you very much. caroline hyde.
european equities heading to the open. anna: angela merkel will see the you party conference later today as she faces criticism from within her own party over her stance on refugees. hans nichols is here in london with us for a few days. alan it is still with us. yesterday we had bad investor confidence index, vw falling to a one-year low. is anyone concerned about the trajectory for the economy? hans: all the numbers are heading downward for angela merkel. it was 70% five or six months ago but now it is below 50. the big question on the economy as to what extent is this going to affect the revenue picture? right now they are projecting a budget surplus of 5 billion euros. next year will be 30 billion. they have been entirely honest about how much it is going to cost.
haven't beeney upfront and straightforward enough to satisfy their critics on how much it will cost. they have set aside 6 billion for 2016. cheery rating economy affects their ability to offer a big problem in a campaign promise violation. guy: the economy is slowing. she has her eyes firmly fixed on the refugee crisis. any criticism she is looking at the wrong problem -- we start to see this data together. is there a sense that she may have to payivot? ihans: it is not a criticism of her priorities. right now the criticism is that withoutpromised a lot an ability to deliver and no one knows the scope of the problem. it seems like every other day someone is taking a public shot at her. a year ago it would have been unthinkable.
which her own party is challenging her and saying we haven't thought this out, we haven't been germanic and thinking about the different permutations -- from housing to social health, how do you integrate these refugees? it is a massive challenge. her response continues to be we will do it. it is a nice slogan but not specific enough. anna: alan, a number of challenges facing germany. the slowdown in china, the refugee crisis, the politics around it playing into your investment strategy. alan: we are longer-term investors and we try to use market volatility in our favor longer-term. one thing i would say is that vw is a rubbish index. [laughter] guy: should we totally --
alan: it tends to just circle around the market. value. predictive alan: in our humble opinion. guy: we will put you up in the worst hotel. [laughter] alan: you're talking about a balanced budget. how many economies in the world would like that balanced budget? it looks to us reasonably robust. vw is a real shocker. that company, like a lot of companies, we bought some bombs. -- bonds. anna: you don't see this worst-case scenario being painted for vw? alan: no. i remember when bp plunged and if you look at the history of that, it has been run for bondholders.
the payments are contractual and the dividends can go. these situations at glencore, tesco, these companies are being run for their bondholders. yeah, you need to take care. -- don't think folks lik guy: given all that is happening, is there a chance that the bundesbank will soften its line? hans: not really. i think we will hear later today -- the bundesbank has always been somewhat out of step with the ecb and hasn't mattered. heard german we criticism about what the ecb will do in terms of expanding, or even the initiation of quantitive easing? i believe a couple days ago, we did hear on the ecb hinting that
they didn't quite need to expand the scope yet. even within the ecb, the germans are still the hawks. i take your point. for most eurozone countries they love to have that problem. historically, germany would like to have that problem. their norm is much higher. maybe germany just has to accept a new normal -- but i do think -- the holy grail in german politics is a balanced budget, and if that becomes appareled i think there is a geometrical problem, can the problem is squared for merkel, that she has spent all this money on refugees, sacrificing the black zero. anna: is the ecb going to do more? alan: we think so. it is such a low-inflation economy and world. we think, yes, the germans will
remain hawkish. somet some expansion, extension of corporate bonds, maybe an expansion into corporate bonds or selection of corporate bonds. we shall see. it depends how bad things get on disinflation. anna: alan higgins. hans, thank you very much. ferro is up next -- what do you got? jonathan: a lot of discussions about china. factory gate deflation extending a record stretch of declines. the prospect of more easing. what we should be talking about is lifting the lid on the data. it speaks to a service sector that is doing ok, canada manufacturing sector that is obviously in recession. we will discuss what that means for the commodities market. dan, jpmorgan -- a miss for wall street.
the bank warning that the pain isn't over, because the pain comes from the volatility, or from washington. we will talk about the politics around wall street later in the show. anna: jon ferro and the team for "on the move," back in a couple minutes. this is how we think european equities will open, their value down by 6/10 of 1%. the dax will open a little bit softer than most, but near 1%. deflation -- those chinese numbers of a talking point this morning and no doubt that will continue. we will see you tomorrow. ♪
jonathan: good morning and welcome to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro at bloombergs european headquarters. let's get to your morning brief. chinay gate inflation in since a record stretch of declines. ms on wall street. commodities trading on jpmorgan's numbers. the bank says the pain is not over yet. god bless the central bank. resident couldn't is all smiles -- president clinton is all clinton --resident teachers and london lower, down
by 45 points. almost 60 points after a big run of gains. is it another morning of losses? caroline: we have lost 100 billion euros worth of market capitals on stoxx 600. a third day of declines is being spelled out by the futures market. prettytata not looking -- factory data not looking pretty. does it spelled more stimulus? you will get that from asia next. asia equities were down. we go lower. but you 100 up by .6% -- ftse 100 up by .6%. risk aversion when it comes to equity markets here in europe. let's take a look at w